Continuing our Awards Season coverage, here 10 things The Stake predicts for the Academy Awards ceremony.

10. There will be an extended joke at the expense of Marvel, and it will be humorless.
The Oscars will continue reaching for the young viewers by incorporating the superhero success of Marvel, but having no one on the writing staff who knows how to connect to such a crowd, the joke/bit/bomb will be terrible.
The telecast will reek with “youth appeal” that fails to appeal to anyone.

9. Matthew McConaughey will become Academy Award Winner Matthew McConnaughey.
For Dallas Buyer’s Club, the actor underwent a remarkable physical transformation to play a man diagnosed with H.I.V. and given 30 days to live. He will win an Oscar.

(or he’ll lose to Chiwetel Ejiofor)

8. Ellen DeGeneres will represent safety above all
It’s no secret that the Academy Awards has stumbled with host selection of late. Seth McFarlane was out of place (he had no business being chosen in the first place, honestly), Billy Crystal lost the magic since the mid-90s years, James Franco went all James Franco and left poor Anne Hathaway to drive into the doldrums. It’s been rough.
But Ellen is lovable. She’s funny. Charming. And, as far as emcees are concerned, safe. She’s the Big 10 program of Oscar hosts.

7. Ratings will be up. Or down.
And it’ll be because Seth McFarlane was the host last time, and Ellen is the host this time. Which will make it totally obvious why this year’s ratings were much better. Or worse. After the ceremony, the reasons will have been completely self-evident to anyone willing to look, beforehand. And the host choice will have been obviously terrible. Or inspired.

6. Gravity will win many awards, not best picture
I’m a fan of Gravity. No bones about it. I hope it wins all over the place.
But it won’t win best picture. It’ll hang over the awards ceremony most of the night after picking up tons of nominations. Voters will give the film all the technical awards, and maybe pick up best director (but we don’t think so, see below). Also, its two leads will feature prominently at the show, because they’re mega movie stars. Why wouldn’t they?

5. Early Awards Season will tell us nothing
The official Awards Season has kicked off. It all builds to the Oscars, and this year will provide almost no predictability. American Hustle won best picture at New York, Gravity and Her tied for the top award in LA. 12 Years a Slave won at the NY Online critics awards. Sometimes we know what’s gonna win the big prizes. This year, we won’t.

4. The Wind Rises will win.
Hayao Miyazaki is retiring, and his final film, The Wind Rises, will be honored. Miyazaki is a storyteller of unparalleled imagination and insight. (Full disclosure: Princess Mononoke is my personal favorite film. Ever.)
Miyazaki previously won best animated award for Spirited Away. And was nominated for Howl’s Moving Castle. If The Wind Rises is truly his final film, and it is as good as we have been told (it doesn’t have a US release until mid-January, 2014), it’s going to win.

Everyone loves Hayao Miyazaki.

3. Ron Burgundy and the Channel 4 news team will present.
And it will be hilarious. Will Ferrell and the gang will deliver the night’s best bit of comedy.

2. A black director will win Best Director for the first time.
There have only been two black directors ever nominated for Best Director-John Singleton for Boyz ‘n the Hood and Lee Daniels for Precious…. Both lost.
We think that’ll change. This year will see the total nominations double, as Lee Daniels will again receive a nod, as will Steve McQueen, who, in our estimation, will win the award for 12 Years a Slave.

1. For the 4th straight year, The Golden Globes will be better than the Oscars.
It’s not entirely the Oscars’ fault. But the Golden Globes in recent years have been a much funnier, better hosted, more enjoyable affair than the flailing Academy Award telecast. And they’re awarding better films than the Oscars, to boot.
And though Ellen DeGeneres, this year’s host, will do an admirable job with what she’s given, how can she compete with Tina Fey and Amy Poehler?

Everyone who watches can tell the Golden Globes are more fun to attend (booze helps, probably), and that alone makes the Golden Globes more fun to watch.